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This is a personal recollection on the Move fire on May 13, 1985
In mathematical finance, the multi-curve framework refers to [1] the simultaneous use of multiple interest rate curves to price the various fixed income securities and derivatives, based on their characteristics, particularly tenor, but also currency.
Historically interest rate swaps, IRSs, were valued using discount factors derived from the same curve used to forecast the LIBOR (-IBOR) rates for payment (the erstwhile reference rates; see below re MRRs). This has been called "self-discounted". Following the 2008 financial crisis, [2] however, it became apparent that the approach was not appropriate, and alignment towards discount factors associated with physical collateral of the IRSs was needed. [3] [4] [5]
Thus, the now-standard pricing approach is the "multi-curve framework" where separate discount curves and forecast curves are built; here, respectively:
Although the Multi-curve framework modifies the overall approach, there is no change to the economic pricing principle: swap leg values are still identical at initiation, and, more generally, yield curves are consistent with the market prices of key (all) instruments (see Rational pricing § Swaps, and § Fixed-income securities). What differs is that, as above, separate curves are constructed for payments and for discounting.
Thus, regarding the curve build, the following emerges. [7] [8] [9] [2] Under the old framework a single self-discounted curve was "bootstrapped" for each tenor; i.e.: solved such that it exactly returned the observed prices of selected instruments—IRSs, with FRAs in the short end—with the build proceeding sequentially, date-wise, through these instruments. Under the new framework, the various curves are best fitted to observed market prices as a "curve set": one curve for discounting, and one for each IBOR-tenor "forecast curve"; the build is then based on quotes for IRSs and OISs, with FRAs included as before. Here, since the observed average overnight rate plus a spread is swapped for[10] the -IBOR rate over the same period (the most liquid tenor in that market), and the -IBOR IRSs are in turn discounted on the OIS curve, the problem entails a nonlinear system, where all curve points are solved at once, and specialized iterative methods are usually employed (see further following). The forecast-curves for other tenors can be solved in a "second stage", bootstrap-style, with discounting on the now-solved OIS curve.
A CSA could allow for collateral, and hence interest payments on that collateral, in any currency.[11] To accommodate this, banks include in their curve-set a USD discount-curve to be used for discounting local-IBOR trades which have USD collateral; this curve is sometimes called the (Dollar) "basis-curve". It is built by solving for observed (mark-to-market) cross-currency swap rates, where the local -IBOR is swapped for USD LIBOR with USD collateral as underpin. The latest, pre-solved USD-LIBOR-curve is therefore an (external) element of the curve-set, and the basis-curve is then solved in the "third stage". Each currency's curve-set will thus include a local-currency discount-curve and its USD discounting basis-curve. As required, a third-currency discount curve — i.e. for local trades collateralized in a currency other than local or USD (or any other combination) — can then be constructed from the local-currency basis-curve and third-currency basis-curve, combined via an arbitrage relationship known here as "FX Forward Invariance".[12]
Various approaches to solving curves are possible. Modern methods tend to employ global optimizers with complete flexibility in the parameters that are solved relative to the calibrating instruments used to tune them. These optimizers will seek to minimize some objective function - here matching the observed instrument values - and this assumes that some interpolation mode [13] [14] [15] has been configured for the curves; the approach ultimately employed may be a modification of Newton's method. Maturities corresponding to input instruments are referred to as "pillar points"; these are solved directly, while other spot rates are interpolated. (Then, once solved, all that need be stored are the pillar point rates and the interpolation rule.)
Starting in 2021, LIBOR is being phased out, with replacements including other "market reference rates" (MRRs) such as SOFR and TONAR. (These MRRs are based on secured overnight funding transactions). With the coexistence of "old" and "new" rates in the market, multi-curve and OIS curve "management" is necessary, with changes required to incorporate new discounting and compounding conventions, while the underlying logic is unaffected; see.[16][17][18]
The reference to "multi-curves" sometimes includes the various curves relating to credit quality. A notable post-crisis development is XVA, [19] where CSA discount curves are combined with the counterparty's survival curve, and also with the relevant funding curves, so as to model the various "valuation adjustments" that may apply. Where the underlying-instrument exhibits optionality — caps and floors, swaptions, embedded derivatives — so a volatility "cube" will be further required. Relatedly, investment banks will sometimes value their bonds using CSA-linked discount curves, while adjusting the expected cashflows (coupons and "face") for default risk via the use of an issuer "credit curve".
The separation of discounting and forward curves, the explicit modeling of basis risk, and the incorporation of credit and volatility considerations all add layers of complexity as compared to the simpler self-discounting regime. Thus, financial risk management in a multi-curve environment involves a more nuanced approach to hedging, economic / risk capital, and stress testing. [3][4] [10] Since (individual) positions are (potentially) affected by numerous instruments not obviously related, a "real challenge" [10] is to then hedge portfolios and describe risks coherently; hedge accounting is similarly complicated. [20]
For stress testing, the bank must model the impact of the (macro-economic) scenario in question on the various (major) risk factors, incorporating, as far as possible, their interrelationships; under multi-curves, this (potentially) requires a modification to the existing framework. [21] Similarly, to return an estimate of value at risk (VaR) the bank must now simulate changes in the OIS curve, forward curves, basis spreads, as well as credit spreads, while also ensuring that correlations between these risk factors are properly modeled. Allocation of the resultant economic capital — required, e.g., for RAROC calculations at the operational dealing "desk" level — is similarly complicated due to the multiple risk factors (and if required, partial sensitivities [22]) involved.
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In mathematical finance, the multi-curve framework refers to the simultaneous use of multiple interest rate curves to price the various fixed income securities and derivatives, based on their characteristics, particularly tenor, but also currency.
In finance, an interest rate derivative (IRD) is a derivative whose payments are determined through calculation techniques where the underlying benchmark product is an interest rate, or set of different interest rates. There are a multitude of different interest rate indices that can be used in this definition. IRDs are popular with all financial market participants given the need for almost any area of finance to either hedge or speculate on the movement of interest rates. Modeling of interest rate derivatives is usually done on a time-dependent multi-dimensional lattice ("tree") or using specialized simulation models. Both are calibrated to the underlying risk drivers, usually domestic or foreign short rates and foreign exchange market rates, and incorporate delivery- and day count conventions. The Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework is often used instead of short rates.
A yield curve shows the relationship between yields and time to maturity for a set of comparable debt securities. In practice the term usually refers to curves built from a single issuer or market segment so that credit quality and other features are as similar as possible, for example the U.S. Treasury curve for government bonds. Different markets publish related curves for different purposes. Common examples include government bond curves, overnight indexed swap curves and interest rate swap curves. These families are produced by central banks and data providers from prices of instruments in each market and are kept comparable within a family by construction. Analysts often summarize the curve's shape with a "term spread" such as the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Central banks track these measures because a sustained inversion has historically preceded U.S. recessions and is used in simple recession-probability models. The yield curve is closely related to the term structure of interest rates. Official sources distinguish several ways to summarize it, including zero-coupon or "spot" curves, implied forward curves and par yield curves, each derived from the same underlying prices.
Curve fitting is the process of constructing a curve, or mathematical function, that has the best fit to a series of data points, possibly subject to constraints. Curve fitting can involve either interpolation, where an exact fit to the data is required, or smoothing, in which a "smooth" function is constructed that approximately fits the data. A related topic is regression analysis, which focuses more on questions of statistical inference such as how much uncertainty is present in a curve that is fitted to data observed with random errors. Fitted curves can be used as an aid for data visualization, to infer values of a function where no data are available, and to summarize the relationships among two or more variables. Extrapolation refers to the use of a fitted curve beyond the range of the observed data, and is subject to a degree of uncertainty since it may reflect the method used to construct the curve as much as it reflects the observed data. For linear-algebraic analysis of data, "fitting" usually means trying to find the curve that minimizes the vertical (y-axis) displacement of a point from the curve (e.g., ordinary least squares). However, for graphical and image applications, geometric fitting seeks to provide the best visual fit; which usually means trying to minimize the orthogonal distance to the curve (e.g., total least squares), or to otherwise include both axes of displacement of a point from the curve. Geometric fits are not popular because they usually require non-linear and/or iterative calculations, although they have the advantage of a more aesthetic and geometrically accurate result.
Before the 1921 destruction of Tulsa’s Greenwood District, Black residents had created a remarkable center of business and community life. The district included stores, professional offices, entertainment venues and homes owned by Black citizens. Understanding Greenwood means learning what was built—not only what was burned.
MORE →Mae Jemison, aboard Space Shuttle Endeavour in 1992.